- 2024-09-27
- 45 comments
One Line, One Game, One Event" Major Launch! Public Fund Analysis
**Guide**: "One Line, One Bureau, One Meeting" releases a major announcement!
Public funds interpretation is here, and A-shares are boiling!
On the morning of September 24th, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the financial support for high-quality economic development.
The People's Bank of China announced several major policies, including reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and reductions in existing housing loan interest rates.
The Financial Regulatory Authority and the China Securities Regulatory Commission also issued support policies for the capital market.
Advertisement
Affected by this news, today, the main A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index recording five consecutive days of gains and achieving the largest single-day increase in more than four years.
The market's total turnover for the day was 971.3 billion yuan, a significant increase of 420.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day.
Many industry insiders have stated that the continuous introduction of financial policies reflects a positive response to the current economic situation.
Measures such as reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, reductions in existing housing loan interest rates, and the introduction of new monetary policy tools to support the capital market are aimed at reducing the financing costs of the real economy, strengthening financial support for the real economy, and stabilizing the capital market, providing strong support for high-quality economic development.
The policy combination has greatly boosted market confidence.
Many industry insiders have stated that the new financial support policies for the real economy issued by the "One Line, One Bureau, One Meeting" are very strong and significantly exceed market expectations, greatly boosting market confidence.
Guotai Fund stated that the series of policies exceeded market expectations.
This comprehensive easing is to further strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments and increase financial support for the real economy.
Specifically, the monetary policy easing this time is relatively high.
This time, the reserve requirement ratio cut by 50BP and announced that there will still be a cut of 25BP to 50BP within the year, with the highest reserve requirement ratio cut by 1.5% within the year, which is the most relaxed reserve policy since 2018.
The interest rate cut is relatively large, and this time the reverse repo interest rate cut of 20BP is the largest since 2020.
"This time, the central bank announced a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 50BP, providing about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity to the financial market.
It effectively alleviated the abnormal state of tight capital and inverted short-term interest rate curves, providing effective support for the real economy."
Zhongou Fund believes that this time the central bank proposed the creation of securities, fund, and insurance company swap facilities, which will greatly enhance the institutions' ability to obtain funds and increase their stock holdings, helping to provide liquidity for the market, and providing a guarantee for the improvement of liquidity in the capital market and long-term stable development.
"Swap facilities and special re-lending are both positioned as structural monetary policy tools of the central bank, and are a supplement to the total monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, reflecting the policy's targeted support for the capital market."
Pengyang Fund analysis pointed out that both tools reflect the monetary policy's support for the stable and healthy development of the capital market, enhancing the investment function of the capital market and improving the market's inherent stability, and should not be simply understood as supporting stock speculation.
Bosera Fund's macro strategy department pointed out that this policy combination has both the continuation and strengthening of policy orientation, and is also conducive to the accelerated recovery of the economy.
The policy combination is conducive to improving the supply and demand situation of industries related to real estate and fixed asset investment, indirectly conducive to the supply and demand situation of some consumer goods, and ultimately conducive to promoting the reversal of the market's weakness.
Debon Fund emphasized that this policy, whether it is a reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut, or a reduction in existing housing loan interest rates, is an increase in counter-cyclical adjustment policies, which has greatly boosted the market sentiment that has been sluggish for a long time, and it is expected that the policy will have a strong supporting effect on the economy in the fourth quarter.
In particular, the reduction in existing housing loan interest rates can reduce household interest expenses by about 150 billion yuan per year, which is expected to boost the current level of social retail.
"From the fundamental level, a series of policies are beneficial to reduce the cost of residents' debt, improve the willingness of residents to consume, and boost the macro economy; from the market level, a series of policies are beneficial to improve the long-term return on investment of listed companies, and boost market risk appetite."
HSBC Jinxin Fund stated.
The market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
For the future market, Deng Haiqing, deputy general manager and chief investment officer of AVIC Fund, stated that this incremental monetary policy is the most groundbreaking reform since the launch of interest rate marketization reform in 2014.
The era of the central bank's monetary policy revolution 3.0 has arrived, and we have entered a transition from a prosperity era driven by bank debt to a prosperity era driven by investment bank capital, which is also a necessary path for the mission upgrade from a financial power to a financial strong country.
Historically, every major adjustment of the monetary policy transmission mechanism will usher in a super bull market, and this time should be no exception, "the new spring of China's stock market is not far away."
Morgan Asset Management emphasized that the current overall valuation level of A-shares is relatively low in the past ten years.
Against the background of the continuous recovery of the domestic economy, the Fed's interest rate cut has opened up domestic monetary policy space.
Combined with the fiscal policy that may increase its intensity in the second half of the year, the issuance of 300 billion yuan of super long-term special treasury bonds, the comprehensive start of the "two new" policies, the market is expected to stabilize and rebound.
Debon Fund pointed out that this time, President Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank created monetary policy structural policies to support the capital market, special re-lending, and the stabilization fund is also under study, clearly supporting the development of the stock market from the policy level.
The first phase of the swap facility is 50 billion yuan, and the stock repurchase and increase in re-lending scale is 30 billion yuan.
With the injection of the two funds, the liquidity of the A-share market is expected to improve to a large extent, thereby promoting the market rebound.
Hongde Fund believes that this time the adjustment of monetary policy is relatively large, with a total reduction in reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, reducing the financing costs of the real economy, and reducing the repayment pressure on residents.
At the structural level, it provides greater support for the equity market.
The creation of two new tools has created new channels for capital inflows into the stock market, and at the same time supports the continued increase in investment by Central Huijin, bringing incremental funds to the equity market.
Therefore, against the background of the previous adjustment of the domestic equity market, we are more optimistic about the later market.
In addition, Noah Fund stated that for the capital market, this meeting launched non-bank financial institution swap facilities, stock repurchase and increase in re-lending, specifically for supporting the stable and healthy development of the capital market, reflecting the determination of the policy layer to care for the capital market and investor expectations, and the short-term market may usher in a window period for over-sold rebound.
The market is already at a relatively low position, and the long-term investment value is highlighted, and many institutions have stated that they are optimistic about the over-sold rebound, core dividends, and fields that benefit from interest rate cuts.
Jing Shun Great Wall Investment Research Team stated that considering the gradual introduction of stimulus policies, and the market has entered a short-term over-sold state, it is relatively optimistic about the performance of the later market.
It is recommended to pay attention to three directions: first, the over-sold rebound and valuation repair opportunities, including but not limited to real estate chains, medicine, some consumer goods, media, etc.
; second, the growth direction that has entered the right side of the basic surface or has potential policy benefits, including the semiconductor industry chain, consumer electronics, information innovation, etc.
; third, it is recommended to pay attention to some large-cap stocks that have fallen a lot before but are the core components of the main broad-based indexes.
The Great Wall Fund also stated that looking forward to the later market, because the market generally holds a cautious attitude towards the future economic fundamentals and policy expectations before the policy is published, both the economic indicators and the policy's super-expectation improvement may trigger a market rise.
Therefore, it is recommended that investors actively look for opportunities to lay out at the bottom of the market in order to grasp the opportunities brought by market repair.
In terms of industry allocation, the Great Wall Fund recommends paying attention to four areas: first, financial institutions that benefit from the central bank's capital market support policies; second, industries such as real estate chains, steel, coal, etc., that are affected by interest rate cuts and real estate support policies and have fallen a lot before; third, consumer-related industries that benefit from the reduction of existing housing loan interest rates and the support of the old for the new, such as home appliances, automobiles, social services, etc.
; fourth, industries such as light industry, building materials, food, beauty, etc., that have fallen a lot since late May and are expected to benefit from the improvement of market risk appetite.
Guo Jiting of Nord Fund stated that the following industries can be focused on: first, industries that are supported by policies and are expected to have some improvement in the basic surface of the industry later, such as electronic, power equipment, and other technology sectors; second, industries that have fallen a lot before, the valuation has been adjusted in place, the dividend rate is reasonable, and the performance itself still has some growth, such as consumer goods, medicine, etc.
; third, as the economy gradually enters a stable growth stage, some cyclical sectors that have positive changes in the internal competitive pattern of the industry.
Golden Eagle Fund stated that returning to the investment strategy of the A-share market, the index has rebounded after stepping back to the low point of the year, and has ushered in a long position window under the policy increase.
In terms of industry allocation in A-shares, the short term can focus on the rebound of the over-sold sector, and core dividends, going overseas, global resource products, and central leverage increase are still the medium-term direction.