• 2024-08-31
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S&P Hits New Highs, Chinese Stocks Soar

*Dow Jones Industrial Average Sets Fourth Consecutive Record Closing High* *Chinese Concept Stocks Reach Four-Month High* U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending the rally that began after the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average set a record closing high for the fourth day in a row, while the S&P 500 hit a new record closing high for the second day in a row.

Boosted by positive policy news, Chinese assets continued their upward trend.

By the close of the day, the Dow Jones was up 83.57 points, or 0.20%, to 42,208.22; the Nasdaq Composite was up 100.25 points, or 0.56%, to 18,074.52; and the S&P 500 was up 14.36 points, or 0.25%, to 5,732.93.

During the session, the Dow reached an intraday high of 42,281.06, and the S&P 500 reached an intraday high of 5,735.32, both setting new intraday records.

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Popular Chinese concept stocks rose sharply, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index closing up 9.1%, hitting a four-month high.

Bilibili rose 17.02%, Li Auto rose 11.35%, JD.com rose 13.91%, Pinduoduo rose 11.24%, Alibaba rose 7.88%, and Baidu rose 7.40%.

The U.S. Department of Justice sued Visa Inc. for alleged antitrust violations, and the company's stock closed down 5.49%.

David Kostin, Chief U.S. Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, said on Tuesday that he expects the S&P 500 to rise to around 6,000 points in a year.

This forecast implies that the index will rise about 5% from Monday's record closing level of approximately 5,719 points.

The S&P 500 has risen about 20% this year.

Kostin pointed out in a TV interview that investors may need to deal with market turbulence in the coming weeks due to the election showdown between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.

He mentioned that historically, this period is usually a time of significant stock price volatility and rising volatility.

"There is uncertainty surrounding the election, which brings some concerns from a short-term perspective," Kostin said, "but usually, the market gradually stabilizes after the election, and the stock market tends to rebound after the general election."

Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman explained on Tuesday why she opposed the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points.

She expressed concern that inflation might make a comeback and therefore believed that the Fed should be more cautious about rate cuts.

Bowman voted against the decision to cut rates by 50 basis points at last week's FOMC meeting, becoming the first Fed governor to oppose the majority opinion at an FOMC meeting since 2005.

She believes that a 50 basis point rate cut could pose a risk to the Fed's dual mandate of achieving low inflation and full employment.

Speaking to a group of bankers in Kentucky, Bowman said that a significant rate cut could be misinterpreted as prematurely declaring that the Fed's price stability mission has been accomplished.

She emphasized that achieving a 2% inflation target and maintaining a low and stable inflation rate is crucial for the long-term health of the U.S. economy.

Chicago Fed President Goolsbee previously said that rates need to be "significantly" reduced to protect the U.S. labor market and support economic development.

He also predicted that there could be multiple rate cuts in the coming year.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that while a significant rate cut could bring rates closer to a neutral level, the Fed should not commit to maintaining a significant rate cut tone.

Currently, the market is still divided on whether the Fed will cut rates by 50 basis points or 25 basis points in November.

The FedWatch tool of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange shows that the market expects another 76 basis points of rate cuts within the year, implying at least one significant rate cut.

Investors will closely monitor the Fed's preferred price indicator to be released later this week, as well as weekly jobless claims data, to further judge the extent of future rate cuts.

Analysts at Bank of America said in a report that the Fed remains optimistic about the gradual decline in inflation and expects the U.S. August PCE to be another encouraging personal consumption expenditure report.

On the other hand, after the Fed indicated a greater focus on the weak job market, this week's inflation data may take a back seat.

Senior market strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman, Elias Haddad, believes that the market has overestimated the Fed's ability to loosen policy.

Strong U.S. employment data could prompt the market to significantly revise expectations for the federal funds rate.

In terms of economic data released on Tuesday, data released by The Conference Board showed that due to consumers' increasing concerns about the cooling labor market, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 98.7 points in September, the largest drop since August 2021.

In August, the index was at 105.6 points, far below economists' expectations.

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, said that consumers' assessment of current business conditions turned negative, and their view of the labor market also weakened further.

At the same time, consumers' expectations for the future labor market, business conditions, and income are also more pessimistic.

In the commodity market, U.S. WTI crude oil futures prices rose by 1.7% on Tuesday, with escalating conflicts in the Middle East and another hurricane threatening U.S. crude oil production, boosting oil prices.

By the close of the day, the light crude oil futures for delivery in November at the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.19 to $71.56 per barrel, an increase of 1.69%.